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Friday, February 16, 2007

Speaking of stock markets...

Like most people, I hate being wrong. Last spring, I figured that the market was due for a big correction, so I sold out my index funds and put them into boring (but decent) money-market funds that paid about 4.5% at the time. That was a big whoops: the market, after a small drop that made me briefly feel like a genius, took off and hasn't stopped climbing. Part of me figured there'd be a couple more big hurricanes and gas-price scares; I made good money the year before by taking some contrary positions post-Katrina when MSM Chicken Littles were talking about $7 gas.

The only good thing that happened in 2006 was a big Microsoft play that worked out: I bought a bunch at 22 and sold at 28. (It would have been nice to ride it to 31, but MSFT never stays above 30 for long, and often doesn't get that far.) That, along with partnership income, made my overall portfolio show about a 9% gain for the year; under the S&P gain, but not that awful.

So now I'm stuck with a bunch of cash, and need to figure out what to do with it. Jumping into the market right now seems rather stupid, given that it's hanging around record highs, but there aren't any obvious bargains at the moment. I don't love the 5%-ish it's earning, but I'll keep my powder dry.

Timing is a tricky and dangerous game...
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